Wednesday, September 20, 2006
The Distant Mirror ...
Some random thoughts The Morning After the big primary last night:
-- One of Deval's greatest assets: Memory -- or lack thereof. Those who were just getting out of college in 1990 know of only Republican governors during their adult lives in Massachusetts. Those voters are now in their mid 30s, probably with kids, undoubtably struggling to get by financially and wondering why they haven't joined their friends in the Carolinas. Think they associate the situation with Mike Dukakis and Billy Bulger?
-- One of Kerry's greatest assets: Memory -- or what remains of it. Dems are already pronouncing concerns about 'taxes' and a 'one-party' state etc. as 'moldy' and 'tired' issues. Right. They've been saying that since '94. But see above diminishing-returns point to understand why connecting them to Dems doesn't carry as much punch as it did in the past.
More later in the day ... Pop back in. ...
8:44 a.m. -- Some more:
-- The pre-primary argument that Reilly and Gabs might split their support, handing victory to Deval, doesn't add up this morning. If Deval had won close with only 35-40 percent of the vote, sure, you could have made the old split-'em argument. But not when Deval got around 50 percent. ...
-- Do you think the rah-rah feminist sisterhood will back Healey? Never mind. Women are only women when they're Democrats. ...
-- Early hint of big hot-button issue to come: Giving illegal immigrants driver licenses. Sort of like Shannon's overstep on abortion in '02? It's early. Deval can still dodge it with proven Clintonesque toss-it-overboard tactics.
-- On balance, Mitt is a liability, not a positive, for Healey. She has to keep him close enough to solidify the GOP base. But his presidential antics have really turned off a number of Independents who I've chatted with over the past few months.
11:25 a.m. -- So obvious I forgot them and wonder if they're worth pointing out but what the hell because they're still key:
-- Christy Mihos. He'll probably hurt Healey more, though I've already heard a few disgruntled Reilly types saying they might go for him. Christy is just another reason why '06 is not the same as '02, '98, '94 and '90.
-- The Republican Congress. Think events in Washington don't matter much in this this bluest of blue states? Wrong. All it takes is enough local conservative Republicans, discouraged and/or disgusted by what's happening nationally, to sit out here and clip a percentage point or two off of Healey's base numbers. The reverse works for Dems.
Some random thoughts The Morning After the big primary last night:
-- One of Deval's greatest assets: Memory -- or lack thereof. Those who were just getting out of college in 1990 know of only Republican governors during their adult lives in Massachusetts. Those voters are now in their mid 30s, probably with kids, undoubtably struggling to get by financially and wondering why they haven't joined their friends in the Carolinas. Think they associate the situation with Mike Dukakis and Billy Bulger?
-- One of Kerry's greatest assets: Memory -- or what remains of it. Dems are already pronouncing concerns about 'taxes' and a 'one-party' state etc. as 'moldy' and 'tired' issues. Right. They've been saying that since '94. But see above diminishing-returns point to understand why connecting them to Dems doesn't carry as much punch as it did in the past.
More later in the day ... Pop back in. ...
8:44 a.m. -- Some more:
-- The pre-primary argument that Reilly and Gabs might split their support, handing victory to Deval, doesn't add up this morning. If Deval had won close with only 35-40 percent of the vote, sure, you could have made the old split-'em argument. But not when Deval got around 50 percent. ...
-- Do you think the rah-rah feminist sisterhood will back Healey? Never mind. Women are only women when they're Democrats. ...
-- Early hint of big hot-button issue to come: Giving illegal immigrants driver licenses. Sort of like Shannon's overstep on abortion in '02? It's early. Deval can still dodge it with proven Clintonesque toss-it-overboard tactics.
-- On balance, Mitt is a liability, not a positive, for Healey. She has to keep him close enough to solidify the GOP base. But his presidential antics have really turned off a number of Independents who I've chatted with over the past few months.
11:25 a.m. -- So obvious I forgot them and wonder if they're worth pointing out but what the hell because they're still key:
-- Christy Mihos. He'll probably hurt Healey more, though I've already heard a few disgruntled Reilly types saying they might go for him. Christy is just another reason why '06 is not the same as '02, '98, '94 and '90.
-- The Republican Congress. Think events in Washington don't matter much in this this bluest of blue states? Wrong. All it takes is enough local conservative Republicans, discouraged and/or disgusted by what's happening nationally, to sit out here and clip a percentage point or two off of Healey's base numbers. The reverse works for Dems.
