Thursday, February 07, 2008
'Did not match the fervor'
OK, so it's just one analysis that happens to agree with my analysis: Obama's tie Tuesday felt like a loss. But the new analysis gets to the heart of why it's going to be so difficult for Obama to beat Hillary: women. ... Margery notes the huge female turnout yesterday in Massachusetts and the almost blind determination among many to vote for Hillary. Margery: "The fact that we’re not really electing a woman, but a couple, Round II, seems not to bother these women. Since I’m a woman too, I sometimes wonder: Is it me?" ... The exit polls indicate that Obama chipped away at Hillary's female support. But it wasn't nearly enough. ... Many are saying the ongoing Obama-Hillary fight is like a WWI war of attrition. But so far it's looked more like Bunker Hill. Obama's forces gallantly march up the hill and almost take the redoubt -- only to retreat after a tough fight. They've charged the redoubt two times now -- and been repulsed two times. Hillary's powder seems to be running dry. Will a third charge be the charm? Will Obama's force take the redoubt but still lose the war? ... And that's Hub Blog's military-history lesson of the day, folks. ...
To the local front: Is Ralph Martin mulling a run for mayor? I don't buy into the notion that Menino has been wounded by Tuesday. If he's vulnerable today, it's because he was vulnerable on Monday. ... Mitt is running around with a fork stuck in his head. It's over, but he doesn't know it. ... BTW: Stand by the Hack-Progressive Alliance trend analysis below. But it obviously doesn't explain everything, such as, oh, 58 percent of the voters being women. ...
Update -- From Reader No. 1:
Update II -- John finds a nice rebuke to the 'tantrum prone wing' of the Republican Party. ... While at John's site, scroll down for a quick video from the Blizzard of '78.
OK, so it's just one analysis that happens to agree with my analysis: Obama's tie Tuesday felt like a loss. But the new analysis gets to the heart of why it's going to be so difficult for Obama to beat Hillary: women. ... Margery notes the huge female turnout yesterday in Massachusetts and the almost blind determination among many to vote for Hillary. Margery: "The fact that we’re not really electing a woman, but a couple, Round II, seems not to bother these women. Since I’m a woman too, I sometimes wonder: Is it me?" ... The exit polls indicate that Obama chipped away at Hillary's female support. But it wasn't nearly enough. ... Many are saying the ongoing Obama-Hillary fight is like a WWI war of attrition. But so far it's looked more like Bunker Hill. Obama's forces gallantly march up the hill and almost take the redoubt -- only to retreat after a tough fight. They've charged the redoubt two times now -- and been repulsed two times. Hillary's powder seems to be running dry. Will a third charge be the charm? Will Obama's force take the redoubt but still lose the war? ... And that's Hub Blog's military-history lesson of the day, folks. ...
To the local front: Is Ralph Martin mulling a run for mayor? I don't buy into the notion that Menino has been wounded by Tuesday. If he's vulnerable today, it's because he was vulnerable on Monday. ... Mitt is running around with a fork stuck in his head. It's over, but he doesn't know it. ... BTW: Stand by the Hack-Progressive Alliance trend analysis below. But it obviously doesn't explain everything, such as, oh, 58 percent of the voters being women. ...
Update -- From Reader No. 1:
Full disclosure: I'm a Michael Barone fan and this is one of the more thoughtful analyses of what has happened so far with the campaigns and the candidates. ...I've read both articles. They're quite good.
On the other hand, Mort's math identifies quite well how steep the mountain is for Republicans.
Update II -- John finds a nice rebuke to the 'tantrum prone wing' of the Republican Party. ... While at John's site, scroll down for a quick video from the Blizzard of '78.
