Saturday, January 16, 2010
Coakley: 57 -42
Nate Silver finally admits it: ‘It’s a toss up.’ … But that’s not what Intrade was showing this morning: 57 – 42, Coakley. The numbers strike me as about right.* Keep an eye on them over the weekend. …
P.S. -- Notice the chart showing Martha getting $95 immediately after the Democratic primary. So much for ‘efficient market’ theories. … OK, someone might say, ‘But the markets are now reflecting reality.’ But I’d respond the markets reflected alleged reality at the top of the housing bubble as well. At what given point in a market is ‘efficient’ really ‘efficient’? …
P.S.P.S. – More fun over at Fivethirtyeight.com: 'One Massachusetts Poll Democrats Shouldn’t Panic About.’
* Trading is showing wild fluctuations, from a neck-and-neck race to Coakley up by 40.
Update -- Brown surged ahead this afternoon on Intrade.
Nate Silver finally admits it: ‘It’s a toss up.’ … But that’s not what Intrade was showing this morning: 57 – 42, Coakley. The numbers strike me as about right.* Keep an eye on them over the weekend. …
P.S. -- Notice the chart showing Martha getting $95 immediately after the Democratic primary. So much for ‘efficient market’ theories. … OK, someone might say, ‘But the markets are now reflecting reality.’ But I’d respond the markets reflected alleged reality at the top of the housing bubble as well. At what given point in a market is ‘efficient’ really ‘efficient’? …
P.S.P.S. – More fun over at Fivethirtyeight.com: 'One Massachusetts Poll Democrats Shouldn’t Panic About.’
* Trading is showing wild fluctuations, from a neck-and-neck race to Coakley up by 40.
Update -- Brown surged ahead this afternoon on Intrade.
