Tuesday, January 19, 2010
The envelope, please …
Prediction time! Actually, it’s more like wild guessing time. I’ve covered my share of elections over the years, and I’ve never seen anything like this one. Let’s put it this way: If pollsters don’t have a clue if it’ll be close or a blowout, for either candidate, then it’s time to pull out the darts. … There are four legitimate scenarios today: A.) Coakley in a squeaker. B.) Brown in a squeaker. C.) Coakley in a comfortable win (four points or more) and D.) Brown in a comfortable win. … And my guess is … envelope please … C.) The Dem machine sputters into action. … I don’t want “C” to happen. It’s what I think will happen – or more accurately, what I guess will happen. Besides, I like cutting against the CW grain, even though a Coakely win was CW just 10 days ago. I hope my guess is flat-out wrong. … I look out the window and see snow, head over to Intrade to see Brown way ahead, before voting booths opened this morning, recall conversations with friends passionately backing Brown, and I question whether I’m ignoring the obvious and falling back on a deeply ingrained pessimism before big events.
As for the promised list of issues, passions and other things impacting the contest, here goes (and this is based on whether SB wins or not):
1. The economy: The electoral doomsday machine of electoral doomsday machines – and ideologues conveniently ignore it.
2. Democratic overreach: The year started with passage of a grotesque $787 billion Dem spending wish list, disguised as an economic stimulus package, and it ends with a Frankenstein health-care bill. The Dems don’t seem serious about the economy. They misinterpreted why Republicans were thrown out of office. The overreach has revived the GOP and conservatives, who are now pouring national money and resources into the race.
3. TIE -
-- Martha Coakley incompetence/Scott Brown competence: The worst-run campaign in recent state history runs up against the best-run underdog campaign in recent state history.
-- Beacon Hill hackery: A strong anti-establishment undercurrent that out-of-staters will never quite appreciate. Two tired clichés are true in this election: 1.) It’s the economy, stupid 2.) All politics are local. Senate races are a strange mix of national, foreign-policy and local issues. Independents factor hugely into categories 1.,2., and 3.
4. Gender politics: It’s there – on both sides. We’ve heard a lot about females quietly mobilizing for Coakley (usually in the old “Women good/Men bad” fashion). But it dawned on me last night, while talking to some guys, that men are pissed. They say this has been a “male recession” – and the guys I talked to were wind-burned trade people who weren’t happy with the direction of the state or nation.
5. Dem Disappointment – Not just with Obama, because he wouldn’t go all moonbat on every issue. But with Deval and Sal and Dianne etc. They’re not enthusiastic about this election or candidate. It’s evident.
6. Zombies – Just thought I’d throw that in. …
Prediction time! Actually, it’s more like wild guessing time. I’ve covered my share of elections over the years, and I’ve never seen anything like this one. Let’s put it this way: If pollsters don’t have a clue if it’ll be close or a blowout, for either candidate, then it’s time to pull out the darts. … There are four legitimate scenarios today: A.) Coakley in a squeaker. B.) Brown in a squeaker. C.) Coakley in a comfortable win (four points or more) and D.) Brown in a comfortable win. … And my guess is … envelope please … C.) The Dem machine sputters into action. … I don’t want “C” to happen. It’s what I think will happen – or more accurately, what I guess will happen. Besides, I like cutting against the CW grain, even though a Coakely win was CW just 10 days ago. I hope my guess is flat-out wrong. … I look out the window and see snow, head over to Intrade to see Brown way ahead, before voting booths opened this morning, recall conversations with friends passionately backing Brown, and I question whether I’m ignoring the obvious and falling back on a deeply ingrained pessimism before big events.
As for the promised list of issues, passions and other things impacting the contest, here goes (and this is based on whether SB wins or not):
1. The economy: The electoral doomsday machine of electoral doomsday machines – and ideologues conveniently ignore it.
2. Democratic overreach: The year started with passage of a grotesque $787 billion Dem spending wish list, disguised as an economic stimulus package, and it ends with a Frankenstein health-care bill. The Dems don’t seem serious about the economy. They misinterpreted why Republicans were thrown out of office. The overreach has revived the GOP and conservatives, who are now pouring national money and resources into the race.
3. TIE -
-- Martha Coakley incompetence/Scott Brown competence: The worst-run campaign in recent state history runs up against the best-run underdog campaign in recent state history.
-- Beacon Hill hackery: A strong anti-establishment undercurrent that out-of-staters will never quite appreciate. Two tired clichés are true in this election: 1.) It’s the economy, stupid 2.) All politics are local. Senate races are a strange mix of national, foreign-policy and local issues. Independents factor hugely into categories 1.,2., and 3.
4. Gender politics: It’s there – on both sides. We’ve heard a lot about females quietly mobilizing for Coakley (usually in the old “Women good/Men bad” fashion). But it dawned on me last night, while talking to some guys, that men are pissed. They say this has been a “male recession” – and the guys I talked to were wind-burned trade people who weren’t happy with the direction of the state or nation.
5. Dem Disappointment – Not just with Obama, because he wouldn’t go all moonbat on every issue. But with Deval and Sal and Dianne etc. They’re not enthusiastic about this election or candidate. It’s evident.
6. Zombies – Just thought I’d throw that in. …
