Scott Brown could win. The Herald poll and the BMG poll both seem credible to me, but you cannot be sure who is going to show up in a special election. A capable Republican generally starts with 40% of the vote. All this "Kennedy seat" chatter obscures this fact. Kerry had to fight to keep his seat against Weld and Jim Rappaport, and Ted Kennedy had his hands full with Mitt Romney.
Martha Coakley's campaign should shut up about abortion, people are worried about their jobs and mad about the Wall Street bailouts and bonuses. Cannot believe how lazy she has been, not out there campaigning until the polls got tight. Voters want to see you work, look at the last woman to win state-wide, Hillary Clinton.