Friday, October 05, 2012
The president’s lucky unemployment-rate numbers
I’m actually a little suspicious too about this morning’s jobs numbers. Try as I might not to be cynical, I wouldn’t put it beyond higher ups in government to pull such a stupid stunt to help the boss. Deep down, though, I don’t think the Obama team cooked the books on the jobless rate this morning. Here’s why: 1.) It would probably be the biggest scandal ever tied to issuance of a government economic report, normally treated with utmost respect by administrations from both parties. 2.) There are too many people involved with these numbers to effectively cover up massive fakery. 3.) They would have cooked the books much earlier if they were going to cook the books. 4.) The numbers do follow a general trend line; I expected the jobless rate to fall below 8 percent months ago. 5.) The underlying numbers still suck. Why would they leave those numbers in?
Politically, this report will probably help the president in his re-election bid, but not much, because the numbers still indicate a lot of people are suffering. To ensure his re-election, the president needed much better numbers a long time ago, creating a more positive mood and momentum heading into fall. He didn’t get those numbers. It’s why this race is still a coin toss, with or without today's report.
I’m actually a little suspicious too about this morning’s jobs numbers. Try as I might not to be cynical, I wouldn’t put it beyond higher ups in government to pull such a stupid stunt to help the boss. Deep down, though, I don’t think the Obama team cooked the books on the jobless rate this morning. Here’s why: 1.) It would probably be the biggest scandal ever tied to issuance of a government economic report, normally treated with utmost respect by administrations from both parties. 2.) There are too many people involved with these numbers to effectively cover up massive fakery. 3.) They would have cooked the books much earlier if they were going to cook the books. 4.) The numbers do follow a general trend line; I expected the jobless rate to fall below 8 percent months ago. 5.) The underlying numbers still suck. Why would they leave those numbers in?
Politically, this report will probably help the president in his re-election bid, but not much, because the numbers still indicate a lot of people are suffering. To ensure his re-election, the president needed much better numbers a long time ago, creating a more positive mood and momentum heading into fall. He didn’t get those numbers. It’s why this race is still a coin toss, with or without today's report.
