Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Hub Blog’s earth-shattering predictions for ’12 elections
Hub Blog can never get too far away from the Ghost of 2010, i.e., my awful election-morning prediction that Martha Coakley would beat Scott Brown in the special U.S. Senate election. In 2010, I ultimately relied on conventional assumptions and stats, even though I could see with my own eyes that Brown’s troops were out in a snowstorm, holding signs and looking pumped for victory. That morning I had my doubts about Coakley winning, even as I predicted she’d win. I should have trusted the doubts.
Hub Blog can never get too far away from the Ghost of 2010, i.e., my awful election-morning prediction that Martha Coakley would beat Scott Brown in the special U.S. Senate election. In 2010, I ultimately relied on conventional assumptions and stats, even though I could see with my own eyes that Brown’s troops were out in a snowstorm, holding signs and looking pumped for victory. That morning I had my doubts about Coakley winning, even as I predicted she’d win. I should have trusted the doubts.
What about this
year? First off, I can’t remember an election whose final results I’m so eager
to see, from a purely horse race, who-got-it-wrong-or-right polling standpoint.
There’s genuine optimism on both sides – and a lot of bragging. I can honestly
see this election going either way – and either uber close or uber blowout, for
both candidates. But I’m going to predict … Romney.
God help me, but
I may be once again repeating the same mistake of 2010: Over reliance on stale
assumptions. I’ve also been watching the TV news and seen the shots of long
lines of early voters, who sure look like they’re pumped up Obama supporters. And Nate Silver is Nate Silver. So, yes, once again, I have my
doubts about my prediction.
But I still
believe it’s so hard for an incumbent president to win re-election with the
jobless rate hovering near 8 percent. That alone means millions of Americans (and
their relatives –- don’t forget the relatives) are angry and want change, even
if Obama and Romney can’t deliver on most of their absurd promises. Romney has
also run a very competent campaign since just after Labor Day. Despite what
some people were saying this summer about Mitt’s allegedly sinking campaign,
this election was always going to be close. And it is. So I’m predicting Romney
in a close one. With doubts -- and with a contrarian’s dream of besting the
great Nate Silver.
P.S. - And, oh, I'm predicting Warren over Brown. Hey, I have to call a Brown race right sooner or later.
